The energy performance of dwellings of Dutch non-profit housing associations: modelling actual energy consumption

In Europe, the energy performance of dwellings is measured using theoretical building energy models based on the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD), which estimates the energy consumption of dwellings. However, literature shows large performance gaps between the theoretically predicted energy consumption and the actual energy consumption of dwellings. The goal of this paper is to investigate the extent to which empirical models provide more accurate estimations of actual energy consumption when compared to a theoretical building energy model, in order to estimate average actual energy savings of renovations. We used the Dutch non-profit housing stock to demonstrate the results. We examined three empirical models to predict the actual energy consumption of dwellings: a linear regression model, a non-linear regression model, and a machine learning model (GBM). This paper shows that these three models alleviate the performance gap by giving a good prediction of actual energy consumption on sectoral cross-sections. However, these models still have shortcomings when predicting the effects of specific renovation interventions, for example newly introduced heat pumps. The non-linear and machine learning model (GBM) outperform the theoretical model in terms of estimating energy savings through renovation interventions.